It’s long
been a tradition here at Hot Corner Harbor to look at which active players
might be on pace for the Hall of Fame. I’ve been busy with various things the
past few months, but I really wanted to do my yearly update to the series
before the 2016 season got under way. To keep it simple, I’m going to reuse my
numbers from last year and give a quick refresher on my system; feel free to
check previous year’s editions if you want a more in-depth explanation.
Essentially, I’m looking at how many Wins Above Replacement
(Baseball-Reference version) all Hall of Fame hitters had accumulated at each
age and picked the median. Then, to give some context, I found what percentage
of players at that mark or higher went on to be inducted into Cooperstown
(accounting for players still on the ballot and such). This isn’t to say these
players will or won’t make Cooperstown; by definition, half of all Hall of
Famers didn’t. And hitting these marks is no guarantee; players may drop off,
or they may not and Hall voters may not choose to recognize them anyway. This
is just to get a rough guide to what a Hall of Fame career might look like, and
to see who is on pace.
