Congratulations to the Hall of Fame Class of 2018; Plus What Does Voting Look Like the Next Few Years?

First things first: congratulations to new Hall of Famers Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome, and Trevor Hoffman. They are all very deserving, and with Alan Trammell and Jack Morris going in thanks to the Veterans Committee at the same time, you could argue that this is one of the strongest classes in the Hall’s history.*

*It depends on how you feel about quantity over quality and how you feel about including managers, umpires, and executives in a class versus just counting the players elected, but it definitely seems like an argument that you could make.

But at the same time, it’s hard not to be a little disappointed as well. A lot of the surprise of who makes it has gone away as the tracking of ballots improved, and those four seemed pretty safe the entire cycle. Really, probably even before the election cycle began, if we’re being honest; Thome and Jones seemed like obvious first-ballot guys, and Guerrero and Hoffman were so close last year that it was hard not to see them making it.

Instead, we found out in the announcement that Edgar Martinez, who was above 75% on Ryan Thibodaux’s ballot tracker basically since the 2018 edition launched, wound up falling 20 votes shy of induction, and Mike Mussina, who poked into the low-70s as late as a few days ago, dropped all the way down to 63.5%.

Of course, it might not be all bad news, either. What are the longer-term implications of this year’s induction?

Reconsidering Johnny Damon for the Hall of Fame

When I was looking over the stats for my recent Hall of Fame ballot article, an unexpected player gave me pause. I had never really considered Johnny Damon a Hall of Famer, or even particularly close. But as it turns out, it’s a lot easier for me to envision a case for him than I thought.

But first, a short diversion, because there’s a second part to this that may have changed my thinking. I also recently covered the paucity of Hall inductees at third base, particularly in comparison to the other positions. If you remember from that piece, third base (and catcher) are pretty underrepresented in Cooperstown, but there’s some other weirdness afoot as well. Center field just happens to be one of the locations of that other weirdness.

It’s not strikingly obvious though, like third base is. It’s small stuff that adds up. For example, they have the third fewest representatives in the Hall at just nineteen (third base and catcher had thirteen and fifteen, respectively), while every other position sits at 20 or more. If you use JAWS, Jay Jaffe’s system for studying Hall-worthiness across positions, center fielders have the second highest average JAWS after right field. In my article from last time, I noted that center also tied with third base for the most not-elected “second tier” players (check that earlier link for a fuller explanation). And when I measured out the number of players at each position who hit 60 and 50 WAR without making the Hall, center field had the second and third highest percentages, respectively.

On top of all of that, though, was their “middle”; when I divided inducted Hall of Famers at each position into upper, middle, and lower thirds based on WAR, the top of the “middle” third for center field was right in line with everyone else’s, at 66.5. But the lower end of that same middle third was just 49.5, closer to catchers (who see lower WAR totals due to less playing time) than any of the other positions, who sit in the mid-50s for the most part.

Trade Analysis: Gerrit Cole to the Houston Astros

Some big news in from the Hot Stove, finally! The Astros have agreed to a deal with the Pirates for Gerrit Cole, sending infielder Colin Moran, pitchers Joe Musgrove and Michael Feliz, and minor league outfielder Jason Martin back to Pittsburgh.

Let’s start with the obvious: it’s pretty easy to see why the Astros wanted to do this trade. They spent all of last year poking around for spare pitching, and while Justin Verlander was no-doubt a big pick-up, it never hurts to have too much pitching. And Cole isn’t just any pitcher, a former All-Star and #1 pick who’s received Cy Young support. He slots into a rotation with Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Lance McCullers, and one of Collin McHugh, Charlie Morton, and Brad Peacock.

The Astros’ bullpen was probably weaker than their rotation at this point (as you no doubt realized if you saw any part of their postseason performance), but an extra starter lets them move two of McHugh, Morton, and Peacock into that bullpen, which is a big pick-up, plus in the event of injuries like they had in 2017, they’ll make for much better fill-ins. And with Keuchel a free agent after next season, it makes sense to try and maximize their chances in the short term.

I’ve seen some people imply that this trade was something of a robbery, though, and I think that’s not totally accurate, either. I can see where one would get that idea from, though. Just look at all those descriptors I used in the second paragraph, then look at the players the Pirates got in exchange. None of them are exactly top prospects or anything, and that’s the type of thing that we normally look for in these type of deals.

My (Hypothetical) Ballot for the 2018 Hall of Fame Election

I’ve said it before, but there are a ton of good players on the Hall of Fame ballot this year. It’s actually been just a little bit overwhelming trying to determine a way to even approach breaking this year’s candidates, and in the end, I decided to combine several different methods.

First, just as a starting place, let’s look at my ballot from last year’s election. I did all that work already, after all, and most of those players are returning to the ballot.

Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Tim Raines, Manny Ramirez, Ivan Rodriguez, Curt Schilling, Larry Walker

The good news: Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, and Ivan Rodriguez were all inducted, and that’s a lot of ballot space freed up! Yay! The bad news: Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Scott Rolen, and Andruw Jones are just the head of this incredibly stacked class of newcomers (which I’ve been predicting for five years now). That’s…definitely more than three slots, at least. Curse you, 10-player limit!

What happens if we line everyone up by WAR? That’s a pretty good way to start, take a broad survey of what kinds of players we’re dealing with. Remember, usually, 50+ WAR is in the conversation, 60+ is a strong candidate, and 70+ is usually a lock.

Who Was the First Hall of Fame Inductee for Each Team?

One interesting bit of trivia that I’ve seen before is that the Colorado Rockies have never had a Hall of Famer. Not just someone inducted into the Hall wearing a Rockies cap, which is what most people think of when they hear that sort of thing. What I mean is that no one who has ever played for Colorado has ever been inducted into Cooperstown at all. They are the only team where that is the case.

This naturally leads one to wonder who that first Rockie will be. Larry Walker is incredibly deserving, but he’s also in his eighth year (out of ten) on the ballot and struggling to get anywhere near the 75% he needs. Next year, life-long Rockie Todd Helton will join the ballot, but recent voting trends have me very skeptical he will see massive support; better direct comparisons in Walker and Jeff Bagwell have struggled as of late, and Helton isn’t quite their equal. But if it’s not one of those two who will be the first of the former purple-and-black making their way to upstate New York some July, who will it possibly be?

One the one hand, you could go with youth, pick some rising star like Nolan Arenado. But that will take time, and there’s still the chance that his career falls short. Maybe the Veterans Committee will wise up and induct Walker or Helton? Again, though, this will take some time; the VC is unpredictable at best, and we have no idea how they’ll react to them (not to mention Helton will still need ten more years before he’s even eligible). But are there any other options?

Actually, as it turns out, yes. We just…don’t have any idea who they are. You see, the first inductee from expansion teams are frequently not who you’d expect. Along the way, I decided to take a look at every team’s first inductee (including, for teams that moved, their first inductee in their new, current home). The results alternate between rather predictable and sort of surprising.