Two more articles this week: first, here's today's recap of today's tough loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, which closes out an otherwise-great ten-game homestand.
Next, from a few days ago, here's a look at Michael Brantley's season, which might even be his best one yet.
A Baseball Blog - Scientific and Speculative Thoughts from Third Base
Thursday, August 29, 2019
Friday, August 23, 2019
Another Weekly Round-up
Two more pieces for your consideration this week, both from The Crawfish Boxes. First, my recap of Monday's win over the Tigers. Next, my look at how Justin Verlander's recent run of dominance means that he could reach 3000 strikeouts a little earlier than expected.
Saturday, August 17, 2019
A Much Less Overdue Link Round-Up
Only two articles this time, after the massive one from last week. First, I looked at Jose Altuve's performance since coming off the Injured List. He's kept up his power surge from early in the season, but his contact skills have returned as well!
Then, I recapped today's loss to the A's. I've been on a really rough roll the last two months or so as far as the Astros' record in games that I recap, but despite that, I still somehow apparently have a winning record on the year at 12-11.
Then, I recapped today's loss to the A's. I've been on a really rough roll the last two months or so as far as the Astros' record in games that I recap, but despite that, I still somehow apparently have a winning record on the year at 12-11.
Thursday, August 8, 2019
An Overdue Link Round-Up
It's been a while since my last post linking to all of my recent writing across different sites, so let's take care of that!
Over at The Crawfish Boxes, I had pre-trade deadline features on the relief pitcher market generally and Felipe Vazquez specifically. I also contributed a series preview for the Cardinals-Astros meet-up.
And the newest feature over there is a piece looking at the Astros' chances at finishing the year with the best record in the majors, comparing their remaining schedule strength against the Dodgers, Yankees, and Twins. As a bonus, I even explained why they're favorites to set another franchise win record this year.
I also did three game recaps along the way, including a loss to the A's, a loss to the Indians, and a win over the Mariners.
If you haven't been following my posts here, I did a piece Hall of Fame weekend suggesting that other teams should follow the Mariners' lead in lobbying for Edgar Martinez, and even suggested a name for each team. And following the Astros acquiring Zack Greinke, I looked at his chances of reaching 3000 strikeouts, and the history of 3000 K teammates.
And lastly, in non-baseball news, over at Out of Left Field, I did a piece suggesting some possible (albeit unlikely) future Disney live action remakes.
Phew, that was a lot; I've been productive lately!
Over at The Crawfish Boxes, I had pre-trade deadline features on the relief pitcher market generally and Felipe Vazquez specifically. I also contributed a series preview for the Cardinals-Astros meet-up.
And the newest feature over there is a piece looking at the Astros' chances at finishing the year with the best record in the majors, comparing their remaining schedule strength against the Dodgers, Yankees, and Twins. As a bonus, I even explained why they're favorites to set another franchise win record this year.
I also did three game recaps along the way, including a loss to the A's, a loss to the Indians, and a win over the Mariners.
If you haven't been following my posts here, I did a piece Hall of Fame weekend suggesting that other teams should follow the Mariners' lead in lobbying for Edgar Martinez, and even suggested a name for each team. And following the Astros acquiring Zack Greinke, I looked at his chances of reaching 3000 strikeouts, and the history of 3000 K teammates.
And lastly, in non-baseball news, over at Out of Left Field, I did a piece suggesting some possible (albeit unlikely) future Disney live action remakes.
Phew, that was a lot; I've been productive lately!
Friday, August 2, 2019
Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, and a History of 3000 Strikeout Teammates
If you’ve seen any of Justin Verlander’s starts this year, there’s a good chance that you’ve seen him making some bit of strikeout history or other; he’s been climbing up the leaderboard since joining Houston, passing famous aces and various milestones almost nightly. When he came to Houston back in September 2017, JV stood at 2373 Ks, in 46th place all-time. Now, just under two years later, he’s climbed all the way to 18th, and at 2902, he should pass the historic 3000 mark sometime in early 2020.
But now, he’s not alone on the team in that regard. With the acquisition of Zack Greinke at the deadline, the Astros now have both the second- and fourth-highest active strikeout totals in their rotation (and, given that this is CC Sabathia’s final year, they’ll of course automatically take over first and third next season). And both are under contract through the 2021 season, meaning this duo should be here for a while.
Greinke is one year Verlander’s junior (well, eight months, but they fall on opposite sides of the June 30th line that’s usually used to determine a the season-age for a player), and at 2570, is even closer to 3000 strikeouts than Verlander was when he arrived back in 2017. Get ready to see a lot of the same names Justin passed coming up again (in the coming weeks, you can look forward to Bob Feller at 2581, Warren Spahn at 2583, Tom Glavine at 2607, and Chuck Finley at 2610). But it also raised a few interesting questions for me: how soon could Greinke reach 3000 strikeouts? And how often are there two 3000 strikeout pitchers on the same team?
Let’s tackle those in order. First, I don’t feel it’s too presumptuous to say that Greinke will get to 3000 strikeouts, and the only active pitchers who I think have a better chance to make it right now are the two ahead of him, Verlander and Max Scherzer (who’s currently at 2638). Greinke is basically a guarantee to reach 2600 this season, and is under contract for at least two more full years to get him even closer.
Basically, as long as you can stay productive or get close enough to 3000 that you can crawl over the line in a season or two while your arm doesn’t fall off, you can keep finding opportunities to get the rest of the way there. There’s a reason that nobody has retired with a strikeout total in the 2900s (something that isn’t true for any other hundreds before it), or that the largest gap between any two consecutive retired players on the all-time list (outside of the top five) is Jim Bunning (2855) and John Smoltz (3084). People generally want to get the rest of the way once they’re that close
And even below the 2900 range, outside of Mike Mussina, the only players who have retired in even the 2600-2900 range are the ones who saw their strikeout ability drop substantially in their final years. Sometimes it was due to injuries limiting their innings, sometimes it was their K/9 rate dropping rapidly, sometimes it was both, but neither seems to apply to Zack yet. I suppose that Greinke could finish in that range and decide to walk away like Mussina did, but I’d want to hear that from him before calling it at all likely.
As for when it will happen, just going by some back of the envelope calculations, there’s a decent chance he pulls it off before his current contract ends. As mentioned, he currently sits at 2570, and has 135 on the year. If he can pull out 60 more (just to use round numbers), that would put him more or less in line with his 2018 total (199) and leave him at 2630. At that point, he would just need to average 185 for the next two seasons, which is very much something Zack can manage. It’s looking like 2019 will be his third straight season topping that total, and perhaps even more impressively, 2019 will mark the tenth time in the last twelve years where he would top 180 strikeouts. We’ll have to see how he fares in Houston, of course (maybe Brent Strom can even help him kick things up yet another notch), but reaching 3000 by the end of 2021 looks at least doable, although it will likely come down to the wire and definitely depend a little on luck.
And of course, by the time that he reaches it, Verlander will have crossed it about a year and a half earlier, which will put the Astros in rare company. In the course of Major League history, only 17 different pitchers have reached the 3000 K plateau, which means teams with multiple 3000 strikeout guys are even rarer. You can probably think of a few examples; Greg Maddux and John Smoltz on the ‘90s Braves, Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling on the Diamondbacks, and so on. But not all of them had 3000 strikeouts yet when pitching in those duos, which would be the case if Greinke reaches it by 2021. How often has that happened?
I decided to chart out every 3000 K club member (plus likely next three in Verlander, Scherzer, and Greinke) by team over the years, as well as when they finally crossed the mark, to answer that question. Here’s as much trivia on 3000 strikeout teammates as I could find:
But now, he’s not alone on the team in that regard. With the acquisition of Zack Greinke at the deadline, the Astros now have both the second- and fourth-highest active strikeout totals in their rotation (and, given that this is CC Sabathia’s final year, they’ll of course automatically take over first and third next season). And both are under contract through the 2021 season, meaning this duo should be here for a while.
Greinke is one year Verlander’s junior (well, eight months, but they fall on opposite sides of the June 30th line that’s usually used to determine a the season-age for a player), and at 2570, is even closer to 3000 strikeouts than Verlander was when he arrived back in 2017. Get ready to see a lot of the same names Justin passed coming up again (in the coming weeks, you can look forward to Bob Feller at 2581, Warren Spahn at 2583, Tom Glavine at 2607, and Chuck Finley at 2610). But it also raised a few interesting questions for me: how soon could Greinke reach 3000 strikeouts? And how often are there two 3000 strikeout pitchers on the same team?
Let’s tackle those in order. First, I don’t feel it’s too presumptuous to say that Greinke will get to 3000 strikeouts, and the only active pitchers who I think have a better chance to make it right now are the two ahead of him, Verlander and Max Scherzer (who’s currently at 2638). Greinke is basically a guarantee to reach 2600 this season, and is under contract for at least two more full years to get him even closer.
Basically, as long as you can stay productive or get close enough to 3000 that you can crawl over the line in a season or two while your arm doesn’t fall off, you can keep finding opportunities to get the rest of the way there. There’s a reason that nobody has retired with a strikeout total in the 2900s (something that isn’t true for any other hundreds before it), or that the largest gap between any two consecutive retired players on the all-time list (outside of the top five) is Jim Bunning (2855) and John Smoltz (3084). People generally want to get the rest of the way once they’re that close
And even below the 2900 range, outside of Mike Mussina, the only players who have retired in even the 2600-2900 range are the ones who saw their strikeout ability drop substantially in their final years. Sometimes it was due to injuries limiting their innings, sometimes it was their K/9 rate dropping rapidly, sometimes it was both, but neither seems to apply to Zack yet. I suppose that Greinke could finish in that range and decide to walk away like Mussina did, but I’d want to hear that from him before calling it at all likely.
As for when it will happen, just going by some back of the envelope calculations, there’s a decent chance he pulls it off before his current contract ends. As mentioned, he currently sits at 2570, and has 135 on the year. If he can pull out 60 more (just to use round numbers), that would put him more or less in line with his 2018 total (199) and leave him at 2630. At that point, he would just need to average 185 for the next two seasons, which is very much something Zack can manage. It’s looking like 2019 will be his third straight season topping that total, and perhaps even more impressively, 2019 will mark the tenth time in the last twelve years where he would top 180 strikeouts. We’ll have to see how he fares in Houston, of course (maybe Brent Strom can even help him kick things up yet another notch), but reaching 3000 by the end of 2021 looks at least doable, although it will likely come down to the wire and definitely depend a little on luck.
And of course, by the time that he reaches it, Verlander will have crossed it about a year and a half earlier, which will put the Astros in rare company. In the course of Major League history, only 17 different pitchers have reached the 3000 K plateau, which means teams with multiple 3000 strikeout guys are even rarer. You can probably think of a few examples; Greg Maddux and John Smoltz on the ‘90s Braves, Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling on the Diamondbacks, and so on. But not all of them had 3000 strikeouts yet when pitching in those duos, which would be the case if Greinke reaches it by 2021. How often has that happened?
I decided to chart out every 3000 K club member (plus likely next three in Verlander, Scherzer, and Greinke) by team over the years, as well as when they finally crossed the mark, to answer that question. Here’s as much trivia on 3000 strikeout teammates as I could find:
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