Rethinking What Makes a Hall of Fame Starting Pitcher, Part 2: What Made Made Things Worse, and a Potential Turning Point

Welcome back as we travel down the rabbit hole of the Hall of Fame’s struggles to induct starting pitchers. If you missed Part 1 of this mini-series, you can find it here, but if you just need a refresher: I ran some numbers, and as of late, pitchers have fallen to just a quarter of Cooperstown inductees, with a strong possibility to fall even lower in coming years. And starting pitchers are just a fraction of that, proving an even more dire situation. Why isn’t the Hall of Fame inducting starting pitchers?

As it turns out, there’s a bit of a history to that: for a long time, Pitcher Wins were the main way voters seemed to evaluate starters, with Strikeouts also getting some consideration. However, that system didn’t traditionally mean that voters only inducted 300-Win guys; in fact, as late as 1980-1990, the Baseball Writers (the traditional first line of electing Hall of Famers) inducted five starters with under 300 Wins (four of whom also fell short of 3000 Ks).

That changed in the 1990s; from 1991 to 1999, the BBWAA inducted six pitchers, all of whom had 3000 strikeouts and five of whom had 300 wins. At basically the same time, any pitchers who didn’t hit those marks basically stopped getting consideration; it would take over a decade for them to elect a starter without both milestones (Bert Blyleven in 2011, who had 3701 Ks but fell short on wins), and two decades for them to elect a starting pitcher who hit neither milestone (Mike Mussina and Roy Halladay in 2019).

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Thankfully, the Hall has a back-up for when the BBWAA falls short in their mission: the Veterans Committee! This special group was designed specifically to cover the players the Writers might have overlooked. If the BBWAA forgot how to induct pitchers without big milestones, theoretically the VC is there to step in and pick up the slack, looking for the modern equivalents to Juan Marichal and Don Drysdale who were no longer getting consideration.


Unfortunately, the Veterans Committee also has a long history of falling short of that purpose. They weren’t at a total deadlock in that 1999 to 2011 stretch between the BBWAA electing Nolan Ryan and Bert Blyleven, but they also weren’t exactly covering themselves in glory, either. And even worse, from 1979 to 1991 the VC inducted zero starting pitchers (this is probably their relative zenith), meaning they entered into this era already in a bit of a hole.

They finally turned that trend around with the selection of Hal Newhouser in 1992; Newhouser was a worthy selection who had spent a full 15 years on the Writers’ ballot, peaking at 42.8% (stats from Baseball-Reference unless noted). That was not bad, especially in an era known for lower vote totals, so, the Veterans Committee started considering his case. In his first appearance after falling off the ballot, the VC had him “high in consideration”, according to research compiled by Graham Womack and Adam Darowski. That sounds good, more or less how it should work… until you start lining up the dates: that Newhouser’s final BBWAA ballot was 1975, his first VC ballot was apparently 1981, and his eventual induction was still over a decade away.

He’d go on to appear in the voting process another eight more times after this “high in consideration” moment before finally making it, calling into question just how high that initial consideration actually was. And it’s not like the VC was inactive at this time! They continued electing position players throughout the ‘80s (including some of their best choices, like Johnny Mize, Arky Vaughan, Pee Wee Reese, and Enos Slaughter). They just didn’t have time to consider pitchers, I guess?

But after that, throughout the ‘90s and early 2000s, the Veterans Committee would finally remember to induct pitchers, and the change didn’t even see them struggle to add hitters at the same time! On the negative side, their choices mirrored the Newhouser selection, in that they were solid choices who nonetheless had to fight a long, uphill slog of a battle towards an overdue election; I suppose that’s what happens when you build up a backlog by not electing anyone on the pitching side for over a decade.

Vic Willis made it in 1995, another good-but-old choice who debuted way back in 1898; Womack and Darowski found several VC nominations for him starting back in 1950s, and like Newhouser, he would appear in Veterans discussions every single year from 1978 through 1993. In 1996, the VC inducted Jim Bunning, who had been slowly building up momentum in over a decade of BBWAA elections before running into some of the worst ballot luck in history.*

*Bunning reached 74.2% in 1988, his twelfth election, just shy of making it in. Normally, that would almost guarantee election the next year, but the new ballot additions in 1989 were ridiculously strong: Johnny Bench and Carl Yastrzemski were first-ballot selections, and then you had Gaylord Perry and Fergie Jenkins (who both made it in 1991, if you remember Part 1), plus eventual Veterans pick Jim Kaat. Voters back then were much more shy about using all of their ten votes, and Bunning slipped from first runner-up to fourth place. 1990 would add Jim Palmer and Joe Morgan as Bunning slipped to fifth, behind Jenkins, and he’d stay there as Rod Carew and Rollie Fingers debuted in 1991. Relatedly, If you’ve also ever wondered why Luis Tiant didn’t do better in Hall voting, it’s because he started strong at 30.9%... in 1988. He also never recovered after this initial crush and the subsequent wave of big elections in the 1990s.

Bunning’s fifteen-year run on the ballot ended in 1991, having come within four votes of election at his peak, which the VC responded to by… seemingly waiting four elections to even bring him up, passing him over in 1995, and then finally getting around to him the next year. Maybe there were rules limiting how soon they could consider a new candidate, but it might have also been an informal convention of the electorate. Either way, a few years later, the late Orlando Cepeda also needed two VC cycles after fifteen BBWAA elections that saw him top out at 73.5%, so there’s at least some sort of pattern here. Whatever the actual reasons were, I can’t say I see the logic in making new VC candidates wait yet another extra election cycle after having already sat through twenty-ish years of waiting, but what do I know?

While we’re covering this period: it’s also worth noting that starting in the mid-’90s, in another long-overdo move, the Hall began adding more Negro League stars to its ranks! In typical Hall fashion, they were good picks, but it was a half-assed process that took forever to get going, and even once it did start, it happened at a glacial pace.

In 1995, pitcher Leon Day became just the twelfth Negro League member of the Hall, and the first new one since Ray Dandrige back in 1987 (not to mention only the third such inductee since the initial nine Negro League player elections from 1971-1977; again, the ‘80s VC might have made some good picks, but they really struggled with anything outside of AL/NL position players). Pitchers Bill Foster, Smokey Joe Williams, and Hilton Smith made it in 1996, 1999, and 2001, respectively, and two-way star Bullet Rogan was elected in 1998.*

*On the non-pitching side, this era also saw position players Turkey Stearnes and Willie Wells added to the Hall. And while not a Negro League star, Larry Doby, who broke the color line in the AL, was also finally honored in 1998.

However, 2001 marked another turning point; after a solid several-year run, Smith and Bill Mazeroski would be the last players the VC inducted at all until 2009*, and Smith would be the last pitcher they inducted until Jack Morris all the way in 2018.** Jim Kaat would follow in 2022.

*They’d finally elect the deserving Joe Gordon that year, then spend the next few elections flubbing the chance to enshrine longtime snub Ron Santo before he passed away. Santo would finally make it in after the Hall completely restructured the process for the Veterans Committee elections following his death.

**A Special Committee was put together in 2006 to look at more Negro League players, since they had been so badly overlooked and the VC’s old struggles seemed to be returning. The Special Committee would induct nineteen players, managers, and executives, including three pitchers: Ray Brown, Andy Cooper, and José Méndez. However, these inductions are usually credited to the Special Committee specifically rather than the Veterans Committee, so I’m breaking them out here as well.

Actually, let’s talk about Morris a little more. In Part 1, I noted that pitchers joining the BBWAA ballot in the 2000s might have struggled to gain traction, as he, Tommy John, and Blyleven continually crowded the top of the ballot (John and Morris spent a full fifteen years before aging out, while Blyleven got in on his fourteenth try). While I’m still not enthralled with his case on the merits, especially compared to the cases for Blyleven and John, I do think Jack Morris represents something of a shift for Hall voters in this era, even the BBWAA ones. Sure, he was a Veterans Committee choice, but he went the full fifteen years on the BBWAA ballot, peaking at 67.7% of the vote. Had his last two years on the ballot not been the 2013 disaster that set off the last ten years of ballot logjams,* I think he would have climbed the rest of the way, and consequently, the VC moved to induct him as soon as they could.

*For a reminder, the 2013 Hall election took the already fairly deep holdovers from 2012 and added Craig Biggio, Mike Piazza, Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, and Sammy Sosa, plus the more than deserving one-and-done Kenny Lofton and the interesting also-ran David Wells. The controversial steroid players, plus the general crowding and less-savvy voting of the time, meant that nobody reached 75% that year, which made it even worse in 2014 when basically all of those names returned along with the new additions of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas, Mike Mussina, and Jeff Kent. Given all of those new names competing for just ten ballot spots, it’s a minor miracle that Morris actually went up at first, from 66.7% in 2012 to 67.7% in 2013, but the addition of 2014 proved too much, and he slid back to 61.5%.

In what way does that make Morris an adjustment for voters? It’s a bit of a leap on my part, but I think it makes sense: the Hall voters have clearly held 300 wins as the defining issue in Hall cases, especially during this era, but there are obviously a ton of issues with that mentality as starter wins continue to vanish and the likelihood of future 300 Win Club members shrinks. But in spite of that, Hall voters seemed reluctant to just drop or even lower the wins requirement.

I’m going to share a table that I included in my last article, of every starting pitcher since 1991 who reached multiple BBWAA ballots without hitting 75%. I’m going to expand it now though, and add a few one-and-done guys as well; I can’t get everyone, but I tried to get a wide assortment of guys who had some kind of Hall argument. In addition, I’m going to include their career Win and Strikeout totals, and I’ll try to make it all sortable.

Name	Ballots	First Yr	Peak%	Peak Yr	bWAR	W	K
Jim Bunning*	15	1977	74.2	1988	59.5	224	2855
Mickey Lolich	15	1985	25.5	1988	48	217	2832
Luis Tiant	15	1988	30.9	1988	66.1	229	2416
Jim Kaat*	15	1989	29.6	1993	50.5	283	2461
Jerry Koosman	1	1991	0.9	1991	53.6	222	2556
Vida Blue	4	1992	8.7	1993	45.1	209	2175
Ron Guidry	9	1994	8.8	2000	47.8	170	1778
Tommy John	15	1995	31.7	2009	61.6	288	2245
Rick Reuschel	1	1997	0.4	1997	69.5	214	2015
Frank Tanana	1	1999	0	1999	57.1	240	2773
Jack Morris*	15	2000	67.7	2013	43.5	254	2478
Dave Stewart	2	2001	7.4	2001	26.5	168	1741
Jose Rijo^	2	2001	0.2	2001	36.5	116	1606
Frank Viola	1	2002	0.4	2002	47	176	1844
Fernando Valenzuela	2	2003	6.2	2003	41.5	173	2074
Dennis Martinez	1	2004	3.2	2004	48.7	245	2149
Dave Stieb	1	2004	1.4	2004	56.4	176	1669
Orel Hershiser	2	2006	11.2	2006	56	204	2014
Dwight Gooden	1	2006	3.3	2006	53	194	2293
Bret Saberhagen	1	2007	1.3	2007	58.9	167	1715
Chuck Finley	1	2008	0.2	2008	57.9	200	2610
David Cone	1	2009	3.9	2009	62.3	194	2668
Kevin Appier	1	2010	0.2	2010	43.1	169	1994
Kevin Brown	1	2011	2.1	2011	67.8	211	2397
Roger Clemens	10	2013	65.2	2022	139.2	354	4672
David Wells	1	2013	0.9	2013	53.5	239	2201
Curt Schilling	10	2013	71.1	2021	79.5	216	3116
Kenny Rogers	1	2014	0.2	2014	50.5	219	1968
Jamie Moyer	1	2018	2.4	2018	49.8	269	2441
Johan Santana	1	2018	2.4	2018	51.7	139	1988
Andy Pettitte @	6	2019	17	2023	60.2	256	2448
Roy Oswalt	1	2019	0.9	2019	50	163	1852
Tim Hudson	2	2021	5.2	2021	57.9	222	2080
Mark Buehrle @	4	2021	11	2021	59.1	214	1870
Bartolo Colon	1	2024	1.3	2024	46.2	247	2535

(The usual notes apply for all of this; Bunning, Kaat, and Morris were all eventual VC selections, Pettitte and Buehrle are still on the ballot, Rijo got two ballots due to un-retiring rather than reaching 5% of the vote, and the maximum number of ballots was reduced from 15 to 10 for candidates added in 2013 or later.)

Tommy John and Jim Kaat both had over 280 wins, but struggled to reach one-third of the vote (although Kaat eventually made it via the VC). Jamie Moyer and Dennis Martinez couldn’t reach a second ballot, even with 269 and 245 wins (not to mention Colon’s 247 wins not even getting him to 1.5% on a ballot where Jimmy Rollins and David Wright reached 5% with ease, although at least you could point to his failed steroid test there). Frank Tanana had 240 wins (to go with 2700+ strikeouts), and couldn’t even get a single vote. Even Bert Blyleven needed a big push from the advanced stat set, with the most-traditional voters showing they were largely fine passing on him despite his 287 wins.

Yes, some of Morris’s strength was in his postseason highlights and the narrative around that, and some was that he hit slightly after the biggest crush of 1990s candidates. But another major argument that his supporters made during his candidacy was that he had the most wins in the 1980s. Yeah, I personally don’t find it a particularly compelling argument, given that it’s extremely arbitrary; like, why are Morris’s league-leading 162 wins from 1980-1989 a big Hall of Fame point, but not Frank Viola’s league-leading (tied with Roger Clemens) 163 wins from 1984-1993?

Still, even if I would have gone with something else, I can at least see the logical progression there, for older voters more skeptical of other arguments. If we might not see 300 career wins again, we should look at something else, so why not “decade win leaders”? And I also wonder if that thinking stuck around to any extent?

Like, take Roy Halladay for example. Halladay only won 203 games, yet made it in on his first BBWAA ballot back in 2019; I don’t know if that’s the lowest win-total for a BBWAA inductee ever, but it was certainly the lowest one in ages. Don Drysdale is the closest to that total in recent memory, as he made it in with just 209 wins (an induction that happened a full 35 years before Halladay’s), and that still took him ten years on the ballot.

Halladay, meanwhile, cruised in on the first ballot with 85.4% of the vote! You don’t get to that total on the first try without convincing some of those traditional voters; did Halladay leading the Majors in wins from 2002-2012 convince some of them? For that matter, did his 2019 Hall classmate Mike Mussina (79.8% on his sixth ballot) win over some of those same stodgier voters for his 152 wins from 1999 to 2008, just one behind league-leader Greg Maddux? That one seems a little more dubious, but I also don’t know that I’d rule it out (something had to win over a few of them, after all).

Of course, the fundamental issue here is that even with keeping an open mind about “how many Wins makes a Hall of Famer”, wins are just not a great way to evaluate individual pitchers. Great pitchers often will get a lot of wins if they stay healthy, but the correlation is never as close as old-time Hall voters and other win proponents liked to think it was. And of course, there are plenty newer and better stats to use to make a candidate’s case…

But I also think there’s value in learning to speak to the more traditional voters. Getting to 75% of the electorate is not easy, and building the votes to reach induction usually involves convincing at least a few of those traditionalists (not to mention that the Veterans Committee is often even heavier on those types of voters). I really do think that not having an easy-to-convey, relatively straightforward argument like Wins is at least part of what holds back a lot of pitching candidates.

This is something that I’ve had in the back of my mind for a bit now, considering different options. Being able to call yourself “the best”, even for just a decade or so, does seem like a compelling Hall argument. Sure, we have value stats like Wins Above Replacement now, but if every voter was swayed by those, we probably wouldn’t be having this acute of an issue; can we come up with something more basic and simplistic? Strikeouts already seem to factor into Hall voting, and I wouldn’t necessarily mind them taking on a larger role in these discussions, but it would also be nice if they weren’t the only thing.

Rate stats are good (whether that’s ERA, WHIP, FIP, or something else), and it helps that there are widely available stats like ERA+ and FIP- that even compare the player to the league average across eras. But it would be nice to get a counting number too, especially since relievers are usually going to carry the edge with rates, and we’d like to focus on starters. What other common ways are there to determine the best pitchers in a year?


I have a stat in mind, something that even leverages another common “best pitcher” system, but I think breaking down how or if it could work is going to deserve a full column, and this one is running kind of long. So, if you’d like to be notified when the next column gets published, consider subscribing to the Hot Corner Harbor newsletter below! (And if you’d also like emails about my pop culture writing over at Out of Left Field, I have a separate list for that too!)

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