A quick note: This year’s Future Hall of Fame Hitters piece wound up being nearly 10,000 words. So, in order to break things up a little bit and make it less imposing, plus to buy me more time to work on the Pitchers piece, I’m going to be splitting it up. One half this week, one early next week. If you’d like to get an email notification when that goes up, you can subscribe to the Hot Corner Harbor mailing list in this box below; I only use it when there’s a new baseball piece up (even my pop culture site uses a different list), so you don’t need to worry about getting too many messages.
It’s once again that time of the spring, where I update my yearly Future Hall of Fame Series and look at which active players are on pace for an eventual Cooperstown enshrinement. But before I get into the weeds, allow me to go on a brief nostalgic tangent about the series.
We are just coming off the Baseball Writers inducting three new Hall of Famers in Billy Wagner, CC Sabathia, and Ichiro Suzuki (here’s my wrap-up on those results, if you missed them). I noted last year that Joe Mauer and Adrian Beltré marked the first two real-life Hall of Famers who had actually been covered in this series when they were active. I never got to discuss Wagner here, who retired in 2010, but Sabathia and Suzuki represent the third and fourth inductees that I’ve included in this series.*
*Technically, Ichiro only just made it, as my initial 2013 columns only covered players under 30 (although Sabathia got a specific mention despite being 31), and I kept things to 35-and-under until 2017, which wound up being his last full season.
It still feels notable, since it’s only the second time this has happened after writing this column for over a decade. But after thinking about it a little more… I guess this is just going to be the new normal? Like, Wagner was about to be aged off the ballot anyway, so we’re nearly out of the era of “guys who retired before I started”, and while it took a few years for me to start including the oldest players in the league and I missed some big names in that window, next year’s new candidates will be guys who last played in 2020, which was well after I started taking a more comprehensive approach.
At this point, it’s going to be difficult for an induction class to have not have someone who made this series at some point. Andruw Jones might go in next year and he retired after 2012, but he finished behind Carlos Beltrán (who made it onto that 2017 list with Ichiro) on this year’s ballot, and I don’t see any way the former makes it in next year while the latter misses out.
And that will be the case going forward… kind of indefinitely? Even if I just decided not to continue this series next year, the Hall will still be dealing with guys that I wrote about here for so long into the future that it’s kind of wild to think about. Like, just as an example, Manny Ramírez’s final year on the BBWAA ballot is next year, 2026, and he debuted as a 21-year-old back in 1993; using that as a reference, a 21-year-old that I cover this year could conceivably be on a hypothetical 2058 ballot, a year that only registers as “sci-fi setting” to me. The timescale that the Hall of Fame works at is just difficult to fathom, sometimes.
A Baseball Blog - Scientific and Speculative Thoughts from Third Base
